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Cairo Plan: A Promising Start, But What Lies Ahead?

The Arab League has voiced its support for Egypt's ambitious $53 billion initiative to rebuild the Gaza Strip.

Deputy Editor

6 months ago

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This substantial financial undertaking proposed by Egypt is intended to address the extensive damage and infrastructure deficiencies present in Gaza. 

The Arab League's endorsement signifies regional backing for the large-scale reconstruction effort, which has an estimated total cost of $53 billion.

International analysts should closely monitor Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks; the Kingdom may hold solutions to critical global issues.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to arrive in the Kingdom on Monday, where he will engage in high-level discussions with Saudi leaders. 

This visit signifies a pivotal moment, as the talks aim to launch a diplomatic initiative that could pave the way for a resolution to the ongoing and devastating Russian-Ukrainian war. 

The meetings promise to address complex issues and seek peace, highlighting the Kingdom's significant role in global diplomacy.

This is not a coincidence but rather the direct result of years of trust-building and back-channeling, which Saudi Arabia has mastered.

Riyadh condemned Russian aggression against Ukraine at the UN but maintained strong diplomatic relations with Moscow. 

This was not only to support the OPEC+ agreement for oil market stability amid inflation, but also because it anticipated the need for a stabilizing force in international relations. 

As a result, Saudi Arabia facilitated two successful prisoner swaps, with Russians and Ukrainians expressing gratitude for Riyadh's efforts.

Leveraging its strong relationship with President Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia remains a trusted facilitator between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States.

Given the expected rejection by Israel and the U.S. of the Arab League proposal, the world may need to seek a diplomatic solution from the Kingdom regarding the Gaza issue.

All attending leaders endorsed the Arab League plan in Cairo. It has received support from the UN Secretary-General and several European countries.

The war on Gaza highlights the need for U.S. support. Trump has stated that there is no place for Hamas and advocates for relocating Palestinians during reconstruction.

Predictably, Israel has rejected any role for Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, or UNRWA.

Under these conditions, convincing Israel appears hopeless. Netanyahu's government seems set on maintaining the status quo until Gaza's population is displaced or decimated.

Meanwhile, Israeli intimidation in the West Bank persists, potentially escalating tensions to a breaking point, even during Ramadan.

Trump presents a different challenge: his administration, despite potential unpopularity, has demonstrated openness to novel ideas (e.g., Middle East Riviera), rejected ground troop deployment, and indicated a willingness to engage with Hamas and Iran.

Logical persuasion can convince Washington to allow Gazans to remain and rebuild. A face-saving exit, facilitated by Qatar and Egypt, could incentivize Hamas to prioritize Palestinian interests through serious negotiations.

Jordan and Egypt's proposal to rehabilitate the Palestinian Police could benefit from the Arab League's support in strengthening the Palestinian Authority, especially as President Mahmoud Abbas has indicated that an election may occur within the year.

Key points to remember: Trump wields significant power for the next two years, his presidency comprises four years, and he remains open to peace talks, potentially including discussions about a two-state solution, a key Saudi condition for normalizing relations with Israel.

Netanyahu's Washington influence is down, limiting his power. Trump needs legacy wins; Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, can better advance Gaza's progress, as Netanyahu is likely to disappoint despite the US backing.

Egypt and the Arab League deserve praise; the Cairo proposal is a promising starting point rather than a final solution. To succeed, it will require further refinement and a positive approach.

Trump's business background highlights a focus on product quality, effective marketing, and financial returns.

Riyadh's assistance on Russia-Ukraine issues, stabilizing oil markets, billions in trade deals, and its role in a Middle East peace deal that facilitated Trump's exit all contribute significantly to potential profit.

We must act quickly regarding the pitch and understand that achieving it will require political pragmatism, determined diplomacy, and skillful salesmanship, not merely wishful thinking.

While Trump can call it the "Riviera of the Middle East," substance matters more than branding. If this $53 billion project is a Palestinian development within a future Palestinian state, Israel must not destroy it.

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